Santos FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Santos FC 45.0% · Draw 22.9% · SE Palmeiras 32.2% Why Santos FC is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1607) is +59 over Santos FC (1548); high confidence. Recent: Santos FC 6W-3D-1L · SE Palmeiras 8W-2D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Santos FC +0.5, SE Palmeiras +1.3. Form depth Santos FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 5/6 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (6/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). SE Palmeiras on a 6-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Santos FC 1.4, SE Palmeiras 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments SE Palmeiras has a stronger recent record (80% vs 60%) — model favours Santos FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Santos FC 0W, 3D, SE Palmeiras 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-0, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 46.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.