CA Paranaense scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Paranaense 47.5% · Draw 23.2% · SE Palmeiras 29.4% Why CA Paranaense is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1607) is +48 over CA Paranaense (1559); high confidence. Recent: CA Paranaense 4W-5D-1L · SE Palmeiras 6W-4D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Paranaense +0.5, SE Palmeiras +1.1. Form depth CA Paranaense: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). SE Palmeiras on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (CA Paranaense 1.6, SE Palmeiras 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments SE Palmeiras has a stronger recent record (60% vs 40%) — model favours CA Paranaense on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — CA Paranaense 0W, 3D, SE Palmeiras 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-2, 0-2.