EC Vitória scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Vitória 40.8% · Draw 27.3% · Cruzeiro EC 31.9% Why EC Vitória is favoured Cruzeiro EC's Elo (1532) is +64 over EC Vitória (1467); high confidence. Recent: EC Vitória 3W-2D-5L · Cruzeiro EC 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Vitória -0.8, Cruzeiro EC +0.2. Form depth EC Vitória: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Cruzeiro EC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (EC Vitória 0.9, Cruzeiro EC 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Cruzeiro EC has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours EC Vitória on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — EC Vitória 0W, 3D, Cruzeiro EC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 3-1, 0-0.