Grêmio FBPA scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Grêmio FBPA 46.5% · Draw 23.7% · SE Palmeiras 29.7% Why Grêmio FBPA is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1580) is +125 over Grêmio FBPA (1455); medium confidence. Recent: Grêmio FBPA 2W-1D-7L · SE Palmeiras 4W-5D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Grêmio FBPA -0.7, SE Palmeiras +0.6. Form depth Grêmio FBPA: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Grêmio FBPA on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Grêmio FBPA 1.1, SE Palmeiras 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments SE Palmeiras has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Grêmio FBPA on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Grêmio FBPA 0W, 1D, SE Palmeiras 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 49.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.