RB Bragantino scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RB Bragantino 44.7% · Draw 29.3% · EC Bahia 26.0% Why RB Bragantino is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1533) is +15 over RB Bragantino (1518); medium confidence. Recent: RB Bragantino 4W-3D-3L · EC Bahia 4W-5D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RB Bragantino +0.3, EC Bahia +0.5. Form depth RB Bragantino: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). EC Bahia on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (RB Bragantino 1.1, EC Bahia 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — RB Bragantino 0W, 2D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-1, 0-3. Calibration Raw model: 50.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.