SC Internacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Internacional 48.0% · Draw 25.9% · CR Vasco da Gama 26.2% Why SC Internacional is favoured Elo essentially level (1514 vs 1510) — winner depends on context. Recent: SC Internacional 4W-4D-2L · CR Vasco da Gama 4W-4D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Internacional +0.4, CR Vasco da Gama +0.2. Form depth SC Internacional: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). CR Vasco da Gama: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (SC Internacional 1.4, CR Vasco da Gama 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SC Internacional 0W, 1D, CR Vasco da Gama 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 5-1, 1-1, 0-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.