Fluminense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fluminense FC 36.8% · Draw 25.0% · EC Vitória 38.2% Why EC Vitória is favoured EC Vitória's Elo (1520) is +34 over Fluminense FC (1485); low confidence. Recent: Fluminense FC 3W-3D-4L · EC Vitória 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fluminense FC -0.2, EC Vitória +0.1. Form depth Fluminense FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). EC Vitória: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Fluminense FC 1.1, EC Vitória 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Fluminense FC 0W, 3D, EC Vitória 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1. Context EC Vitória has 21 more days of rest (Fluminense FC 37d, EC Vitória 58d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.