Manchester City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Manchester City FC 60.5% · Draw 22.8% · Aston Villa FC 16.8% Why Manchester City FC is favoured Manchester City FC's Elo (1709) is +108 over Aston Villa FC (1602); high confidence. Recent: Manchester City FC 5W-3D-2L · Aston Villa FC 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Manchester City FC +0.7, Aston Villa FC -0.4. Form depth Manchester City FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Aston Villa FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Manchester City FC 1.9, Aston Villa FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Manchester City FC 0W, 1D, Aston Villa FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 2-1.