Fulham FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fulham FC 37.1% · Draw 23.7% · AFC Bournemouth 39.1% Why AFC Bournemouth is favoured AFC Bournemouth's Elo (1586) is +75 over Fulham FC (1510); high confidence. Recent: Fulham FC 4W-2D-4L · AFC Bournemouth 4W-6D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fulham FC -0.3, AFC Bournemouth +0.6. Form depth Fulham FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). AFC Bournemouth: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Fulham FC 0.9, AFC Bournemouth 1.3) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Fulham FC 0W, 4D, AFC Bournemouth 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-0, 2-2.