Burnley FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Burnley FC 22.9% · Draw 20.1% · Aston Villa FC 57.0% Why Aston Villa FC is favoured Aston Villa FC's Elo (1586) is +197 over Burnley FC (1390); high confidence. Recent: Burnley FC 1W-2D-7L · Aston Villa FC 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Burnley FC -1.2, Aston Villa FC -0.5. Form depth Burnley FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Aston Villa FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Burnley FC on a 5-match losing streak. Aston Villa FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Burnley FC 1.4, Aston Villa FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Burnley FC 0W, 3D, Aston Villa FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-2, 1-3.