Gil Vicente FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Gil Vicente FC 55.1% · Draw 23.1% · Vitória SC 21.7% Why Gil Vicente FC is favoured Gil Vicente FC's Elo (1475) is +37 over Vitória SC (1438); medium confidence. Recent: Gil Vicente FC 4W-2D-3L · Vitória SC 2W-2D-5L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Gil Vicente FC +0.1, Vitória SC +0.0. Form depth Gil Vicente FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/4 on the road). Vitória SC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (Gil Vicente FC 1.0, Vitória SC 0.9) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Gil Vicente FC 0W, 1D, Vitória SC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 0-0, 0-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.