FC Arouca scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Arouca 57.4% · Draw 22.6% · CD Nacional 20.1% Why FC Arouca is favoured FC Arouca's Elo (1542) is +49 over CD Nacional (1493); low confidence. Recent: FC Arouca 5W-2D-2L · CD Nacional 2W-1D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: FC Arouca +0.6, CD Nacional -0.9. Form depth FC Arouca: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). CD Nacional: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). FC Arouca on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (FC Arouca 1.7, CD Nacional 0.9) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — FC Arouca 0W, 3D, CD Nacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 1-2, 1-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.