CS Marítimo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CS Marítimo 36.0% · Draw 23.2% · CD Santa Clara 40.8% Why CD Santa Clara is favoured CD Santa Clara's Elo (1558) is +65 over CS Marítimo (1494); low confidence. Recent: CS Marítimo 2W-2D-5L · CD Santa Clara 5W-3D-1L (last 9). Goal differential per game: CS Marítimo -1.1, CD Santa Clara +0.8. Form depth CS Marítimo: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/5 on the road). CD Santa Clara: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 3/4 on the road). CS Marítimo on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (CS Marítimo 0.8, CD Santa Clara 1.8) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — CS Marítimo 0W, 3D, CD Santa Clara 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 2-1, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 38.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.