CF Estrela da Amadora scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CF Estrela da Amadora 57.3% · Draw 22.8% · Casa Pia AC 19.9% Why CF Estrela da Amadora is favoured CF Estrela da Amadora's Elo (1486) is +43 over Casa Pia AC (1443); low confidence. Recent: CF Estrela da Amadora 2W-4D-2L · Casa Pia AC 1W-1D-6L (last 8). Goal differential per game: CF Estrela da Amadora -0.1, Casa Pia AC -1.8. Form depth CF Estrela da Amadora: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Casa Pia AC: avg 0.4 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). CF Estrela da Amadora on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (CF Estrela da Amadora 1.9, Casa Pia AC 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.