CD Nacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Nacional 42.1% · Draw 25.0% · Sporting Clube de Braga 32.9% Why CD Nacional is favoured Elo essentially level (1493 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Nacional 1W-1D-6L · Sporting Clube de Braga 3W-2D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: CD Nacional -1.1, Sporting Clube de Braga -0.1. Form depth CD Nacional: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Sporting Clube de Braga: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). CD Nacional on a 6-match losing streak. Sporting Clube de Braga on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (CD Nacional 1.2, Sporting Clube de Braga 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Sporting Clube de Braga has a stronger recent record (38% vs 13%) — model favours CD Nacional on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 43.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.