FC Arouca scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Arouca 53.7% · Draw 23.2% · CF Estrela da Amadora 23.1% Why FC Arouca is favoured FC Arouca's Elo (1533) is +37 over CF Estrela da Amadora (1495); low confidence. Recent: FC Arouca 3W-2D-2L · CF Estrela da Amadora 2W-4D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: FC Arouca +0.4, CF Estrela da Amadora +0.0. Form depth FC Arouca: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). CF Estrela da Amadora: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (FC Arouca 1.7, CF Estrela da Amadora 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — FC Arouca 0W, 1D, CF Estrela da Amadora 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 3-1, 1-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.