Vitória SC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Vitória SC 35.5% · Draw 27.7% · CD Nacional 36.8% Why CD Nacional is favoured CD Nacional's Elo (1514) is +70 over Vitória SC (1444); low confidence. Recent: Vitória SC 0W-0D-2L · CD Nacional 1W-1D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Vitória SC -1.0, CD Nacional +1.0. Form depth Vitória SC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). CD Nacional: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Vitória SC on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Vitória SC 0W, 2D, CD Nacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 32.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Vitória SC has 2 more days of rest (Vitória SC 14d, CD Nacional 12d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.