SC Freiburg
vs SV Werder Bremen_

Most likely scorelines

• 2–1MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  9.5%

  Fair odds

  10.57

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  8.3%

  Fair odds

  12.10

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.2%

  Fair odds

  13.85

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  7.2%

  Fair odds

  13.91

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  6.3%

  Fair odds

  15.92

• 2–2+Save pick

  Prob

  6.2%

  Fair odds

  16.06

• 3–0+Save pick

  Prob

  5.5%

  Fair odds

  18.23

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.4%

  Fair odds

  18.38

SC Freiburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -10%

  Joint prob

  34.8%

  Naïve (book)

  38.8%

  Fair odds

  2.87

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +10%

  Joint prob

  45.4%

  Naïve (book)

  41.1%

  Fair odds

  2.20

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -1%

  Joint prob

  13.8%

  Naïve (book)

  14.0%

  Fair odds

  7.23

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +3%

  Joint prob

  15.3%

  Naïve (book)

  14.9%

  Fair odds

  6.53

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.