Borussia Mönchengladbach scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Mönchengladbach 36.2% · Draw 29.9% · SV 07 Elversberg 33.8% Why Borussia Mönchengladbach is favoured Recent: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W-0D-1L · SV 07 Elversberg 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Borussia Mönchengladbach -3.0, SV 07 Elversberg +1.0. Form depth Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 0.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). SV 07 Elversberg: avg 3.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home).