Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Bayer 04 Leverkusen 60.8% · Draw 19.1% · 1. FC Union Berlin 20.1% Why Bayer 04 Leverkusen is favoured Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Elo (1659) is +198 over 1. FC Union Berlin (1461); high confidence. Recent: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0W-0D-1L · 1. FC Union Berlin 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Bayer 04 Leverkusen -1.0, 1. FC Union Berlin +0.0. Form depth Bayer 04 Leverkusen: avg 2.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). 1. FC Union Berlin: avg 3.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0W, 4D, 1. FC Union Berlin 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-0, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 68.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.