Joint prob 6% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-1.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.5% · fair market: 32.2% · edge: -5.3%
Model probabilities TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 30.5% · Draw 25.6% · Borussia Dortmund 43.9% Why Borussia Dortmund is favoured Borussia Dortmund's Elo (1672) is +125 over TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (1547); high confidence. Recent: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0W-0D-1L · Borussia Dortmund 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim -1.0, Borussia Dortmund +2.0. Form depth TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: avg 2.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Borussia Dortmund: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0W, 1D, Borussia Dortmund 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 2-0, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 23.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 30.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market draw: model 25.6% vs market 24.7% (edge +3.4%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.