Borussia Dortmund scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Dortmund 64.9% · Draw 17.3% · Hamburger SV 17.8% Why Borussia Dortmund is favoured Borussia Dortmund's Elo (1672) is +233 over Hamburger SV (1439); high confidence. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Borussia Dortmund 0W, 2D, Hamburger SV 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 3-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 72.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 64.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.