Real Racing Club de Santander scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Real Racing Club de Santander 46.2% · Draw 28.4% · Elche CF 25.4% Why Real Racing Club de Santander is favoured Real Racing Club de Santander's Elo (1491) is +30 over Elche CF (1460); low confidence. Recent: Real Racing Club de Santander 0W-1D-1L · Elche CF 0W-1D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Real Racing Club de Santander -0.5, Elche CF -2.5. Form depth Real Racing Club de Santander: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Elche CF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Real Racing Club de Santander 0W, 2D, Elche CF 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 52.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Real Racing Club de Santander has 1 more day of rest (Real Racing Club de Santander 11d, Elche CF 10d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.