Real Sociedad de Fútbol scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Real Sociedad de Fútbol 38.7% · Draw 30.3% · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 31.0% Why Real Sociedad de Fútbol is favoured Elo essentially level (1467 vs 1476) — winner depends on context. Recent: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0W-0D-2L · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1W-0D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Real Sociedad de Fútbol -2.0, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +1.0. Form depth Real Sociedad de Fútbol: avg 0.5 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/2 on the road). RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home). Real Sociedad de Fútbol on a 2-match losing streak. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0W, 2D, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-2, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 40.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context RCD Espanyol de Barcelona has 5 more days of rest (Real Sociedad de Fútbol 7d, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 12d).