FC Barcelona
vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid_

Most likely scorelines

• 4–0MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  18.7%

  Fair odds

  5.35

• 5–0+Save pick

  Prob

  16.8%

  Fair odds

  5.94

• 3–0+Save pick

  Prob

  16.6%

  Fair odds

  6.02

• 6–0+Save pick

  Prob

  12.6%

  Fair odds

  7.92

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  11.1%

  Fair odds

  9.02

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  4.9%

  Fair odds

  20.30

• 4–1+Save pick

  Prob

  3.7%

  Fair odds

  26.74

• 5–1+Save pick

  Prob

  3.4%

  Fair odds

  29.71

FC Barcelona scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -5%

  Joint prob

  16.5%

  Naïve (book)

  17.4%

  Fair odds

  6.05

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  -1%

  Joint prob

  81.3%

  Naïve (book)

  82.5%

  Fair odds

  1.23

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  +87%

  Joint prob

  0.1%

  Naïve (book)

  0.1%

  Fair odds

  818.61

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  -60%

  Joint prob

  0.1%

  Naïve (book)

  0.3%

  Fair odds

  808.45

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.