Elche CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Elche CF 24.2% · Draw 16.5% · FC Barcelona 59.4% Why FC Barcelona is favoured FC Barcelona's Elo (1771) is +304 over Elche CF (1468); high confidence. Recent: Elche CF 0W-1D-0L · FC Barcelona no recent form on file (last 1). Form depth Elche CF: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Calibration Raw model: 13.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 24.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.