CS Independiente Rivadavia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CS Independiente Rivadavia 62.8% · Draw 21.0% · Fluminense FC 16.3% Why CS Independiente Rivadavia is favoured Elo essentially level (1528 vs 1522) — winner depends on context. Recent: CS Independiente Rivadavia 5W-2D-0L · Fluminense FC 3W-6D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CS Independiente Rivadavia +1.3, Fluminense FC +0.3. Form depth CS Independiente Rivadavia: avg 2.1 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 3/4 on the road). Fluminense FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CS Independiente Rivadavia 1.5, Fluminense FC 1.0) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CS Independiente Rivadavia 0W, 2D, Fluminense FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 56.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 62.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.