Queens Park Rangers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Queens Park Rangers FC 69.6% · Draw 18.2% · Burnley FC 12.3% Why Queens Park Rangers FC is favoured Queens Park Rangers FC's Elo (1541) is +162 over Burnley FC (1379); low confidence. Recent: Queens Park Rangers FC 3W-4D-3L · Burnley FC 1W-5D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Queens Park Rangers FC +0.2, Burnley FC -0.3. Form depth Queens Park Rangers FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Burnley FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (0/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Queens Park Rangers FC 1.6, Burnley FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Queens Park Rangers FC 0W, 2D, Burnley FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-5, 0-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 67.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 69.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.