Bristol City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Bristol City FC 68.4% · Draw 18.6% · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 13.0% Why Bristol City FC is favoured Bristol City FC's Elo (1503) is +152 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1350); low confidence. Recent: Bristol City FC 4W-2D-4L · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Bristol City FC -0.1, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC +0.2. Form depth Bristol City FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Bristol City FC 1.1, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Bristol City FC 0W, 2D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 66.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 68.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.