Queens Park Rangers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Queens Park Rangers FC 51.3% · Draw 23.5% · Swansea City AFC 25.1% Why Queens Park Rangers FC is favoured Queens Park Rangers FC's Elo (1541) is +31 over Swansea City AFC (1510); low confidence. Recent: Queens Park Rangers FC 3W-5D-2L · Swansea City AFC 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Queens Park Rangers FC +0.1, Swansea City AFC +0.7. Form depth Queens Park Rangers FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Swansea City AFC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (Queens Park Rangers FC 0.9, Swansea City AFC 1.3) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Swansea City AFC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 30%) — model favours Queens Park Rangers FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Queens Park Rangers FC 0W, 3D, Swansea City AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-1, 1-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.