Sheffield United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sheffield United FC 59.3% · Draw 20.5% · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 20.2% Why Sheffield United FC is favoured Sheffield United FC's Elo (1520) is +172 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1348); low confidence. Recent: Sheffield United FC 2W-3D-1L · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2W-2D-1L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Sheffield United FC +0.0, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC +0.6. Form depth Sheffield United FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 2.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Sheffield United FC 1.7, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sheffield United FC 0W, 1D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 67.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Wolverhampton Wanderers FC has 1 more day of rest (Sheffield United FC 28d, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 29d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.