Lincoln City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Lincoln City FC 41.4% · Draw 30.1% · Blackburn Rovers FC 28.5% Why Lincoln City FC is favoured Recent: Lincoln City FC 1W-0D-2L · Blackburn Rovers FC 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Lincoln City FC -0.7, Blackburn Rovers FC +0.0. Form depth Lincoln City FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Blackburn Rovers FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Lincoln City FC 1.3, Blackburn Rovers FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Lincoln City FC 0W, 2D, Blackburn Rovers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 45.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.