Aston Villa FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Aston Villa FC 61.7% · Draw 20.8% · Fulham FC 17.5% Why Aston Villa FC is favoured Aston Villa FC's Elo (1614) is +95 over Fulham FC (1519); high confidence. Recent: Aston Villa FC 6W-2D-2L · Fulham FC 2W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Aston Villa FC +1.0, Fulham FC -0.3. Form depth Aston Villa FC: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Fulham FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Aston Villa FC on a 4-match winning streak. Fulham FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Aston Villa FC 1.7, Fulham FC 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 60.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 61.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.