Olympique Lyonnais scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Olympique Lyonnais 62.2% · Draw 19.7% · Le Havre AC 18.2% Why Olympique Lyonnais is favoured Olympique Lyonnais's Elo (1602) is +188 over Le Havre AC (1414); high confidence. Recent: Olympique Lyonnais 1W-0D-0L · Le Havre AC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Olympique Lyonnais +2.0, Le Havre AC -1.0. Form depth Olympique Lyonnais: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Le Havre AC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Olympique Lyonnais 0W, 2D, Le Havre AC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 4-2. Calibration Raw model: 70.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.