Angers SCO scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Angers SCO 32.3% · Draw 23.4% · Stade Rennais FC 1901 44.3% Why Stade Rennais FC 1901 is favoured Stade Rennais FC 1901's Elo (1573) is +161 over Angers SCO (1412); high confidence. Recent: Angers SCO 1W-0D-1L · Stade Rennais FC 1901 1W-1D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Angers SCO +0.0, Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.5. Form depth Angers SCO: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.5 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home). Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Angers SCO 0W, 1D, Stade Rennais FC 1901 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-1, 0-3. Calibration Raw model: 25.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Angers SCO has 1 more day of rest (Angers SCO 14d, Stade Rennais FC 1901 13d).