Le Havre AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Le Havre AC 2.7% · Draw 10.3% · Paris Saint-Germain FC 87.0% Why Paris Saint-Germain FC is favoured Paris Saint-Germain FC's Elo (1843) is +433 over Le Havre AC (1410); high confidence. Recent: Le Havre AC 0W-2D-6L · Paris Saint-Germain FC 8W-1D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Le Havre AC -0.9, Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.6. Form depth Le Havre AC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 2.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). Le Havre AC on a 4-match losing streak. Paris Saint-Germain FC on a 8-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Le Havre AC 1.1, Paris Saint-Germain FC 2.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Le Havre AC 0W, 1D, Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 3-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 6.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 2.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.