FC Twente '65 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Twente '65 53.1% · Draw 25.1% · ADO Den Haag 21.8% Why FC Twente '65 is favoured FC Twente '65's Elo (1531) is +87 over ADO Den Haag (1444); low confidence. Recent: FC Twente '65 3W-1D-1L · ADO Den Haag 0W-1D-4L (last 5). Goal differential per game: FC Twente '65 +1.0, ADO Den Haag -1.6. Form depth FC Twente '65: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). ADO Den Haag: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (FC Twente '65 2.4, ADO Den Haag 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Twente '65 0W, 2D, ADO Den Haag 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 3-2, 2-4. Calibration Raw model: 61.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context ADO Den Haag has 1 more day of rest (FC Twente '65 33d, ADO Den Haag 34d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.