Telstar 1963 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Telstar 1963 54.3% · Draw 23.3% · ADO Den Haag 22.4% Why Telstar 1963 is favoured Telstar 1963's Elo (1477) is +33 over ADO Den Haag (1444); low confidence. Recent: Telstar 1963 1W-2D-4L · ADO Den Haag 0W-2D-5L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Telstar 1963 -1.0, ADO Den Haag -1.4. Form depth Telstar 1963: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). ADO Den Haag: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Telstar 1963 1.6, ADO Den Haag 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Telstar 1963 0W, 4D, ADO Den Haag 0W (draws are common). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.