Udinese Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Udinese Calcio 32.0% · Draw 22.1% · Como 1907 45.9% Why Como 1907 is favoured Como 1907's Elo (1646) is +186 over Udinese Calcio (1459); high confidence. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Udinese Calcio 0W, 4D, Como 1907 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 4-1. Calibration Raw model: 24.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.