ACF Fiorentina scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ACF Fiorentina 43.8% · Draw 29.6% · Torino FC 26.6% Why ACF Fiorentina is favoured ACF Fiorentina's Elo (1460) is +10 over Torino FC (1450); high confidence. Recent: ACF Fiorentina 0W-0D-2L · Torino FC 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: ACF Fiorentina -3.5, Torino FC -1.0. Form depth ACF Fiorentina: avg 0.0 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Torino FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). ACF Fiorentina on a 2-match losing streak. Torino FC on a 2-match losing streak. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — ACF Fiorentina 0W, 5D, Torino FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 0-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 49.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Torino FC has 1 more day of rest (ACF Fiorentina 11d, Torino FC 12d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.