ACF Fiorentina scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ACF Fiorentina 41.2% · Draw 28.8% · Frosinone Calcio 30.0% Why ACF Fiorentina is favoured Frosinone Calcio's Elo (1494) is +34 over ACF Fiorentina (1460); low confidence. Recent: ACF Fiorentina 0W-0D-1L · Frosinone Calcio 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: ACF Fiorentina -4.0, Frosinone Calcio -1.0. Form depth ACF Fiorentina: avg 0.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Frosinone Calcio: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — ACF Fiorentina 0W, 3D, Frosinone Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 5-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 43.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Frosinone Calcio has 1 more day of rest (ACF Fiorentina 4d, Frosinone Calcio 5d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.