SS Lazio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SS Lazio 56.3% · Draw 23.4% · Genoa CFC 20.3% Why SS Lazio is favoured SS Lazio's Elo (1552) is +118 over Genoa CFC (1435); high confidence. Recent: SS Lazio 1W-0D-0L · Genoa CFC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: SS Lazio +1.0, Genoa CFC -2.0. Form depth SS Lazio: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Genoa CFC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Calibration Raw model: 65.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 56.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Genoa CFC has 2 more days of rest (SS Lazio 5d, Genoa CFC 7d).