AC Monza scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AC Monza 30.1% · Draw 22.8% · US Sassuolo Calcio 47.1% Why US Sassuolo Calcio is favoured US Sassuolo Calcio's Elo (1490) is +177 over AC Monza (1313); high confidence. Recent: AC Monza 0W-1D-3L · US Sassuolo Calcio 2W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: AC Monza -1.3, US Sassuolo Calcio +0.3. Form depth AC Monza: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/3 on the road). US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (AC Monza 1.6, US Sassuolo Calcio 2.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — AC Monza 0W, 2D, US Sassuolo Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 22.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 30.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AC Monza has 1 more day of rest (AC Monza 26d, US Sassuolo Calcio 25d).