ACF Fiorentina scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ACF Fiorentina 31.3% · Draw 23.0% · SSC Napoli 45.7% Why SSC Napoli is favoured SSC Napoli's Elo (1631) is +171 over ACF Fiorentina (1460); high confidence. Recent: ACF Fiorentina 1W-0D-3L · SSC Napoli 2W-0D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: ACF Fiorentina -1.5, SSC Napoli +0.0. Form depth ACF Fiorentina: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). SSC Napoli: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (ACF Fiorentina 1.2, SSC Napoli 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — ACF Fiorentina 0W, 2D, SSC Napoli 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-3, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 23.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SSC Napoli has 2 more days of rest (ACF Fiorentina 26d, SSC Napoli 28d).