SS Lazio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SS Lazio 77.2% · Draw 15.3% · AC Monza 7.6% Why SS Lazio is favoured SS Lazio's Elo (1574) is +247 over AC Monza (1327); high confidence. Recent: SS Lazio 4W-1D-0L · AC Monza 1W-1D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: SS Lazio +1.0, AC Monza -0.8. Form depth SS Lazio: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 3/3 on the road). AC Monza: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (SS Lazio 2.0, AC Monza 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SS Lazio 0W, 2D, AC Monza 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 5-1, 0-1, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 74.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 77.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AC Monza has 2 more days of rest (SS Lazio 47d, AC Monza 49d).