AC Monza scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AC Monza 18.0% · Draw 20.2% · Cagliari Calcio 61.7% Why Cagliari Calcio is favoured Cagliari Calcio's Elo (1488) is +160 over AC Monza (1327); high confidence. Recent: AC Monza 1W-1D-4L · Cagliari Calcio 4W-1D-1L (last 6). Goal differential per game: AC Monza -1.0, Cagliari Calcio +0.5. Form depth AC Monza: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/4 on the road). Cagliari Calcio: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 3/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (AC Monza 1.0, Cagliari Calcio 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — AC Monza 0W, 1D, Cagliari Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 1-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 23.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 18.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.