Torino FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Torino FC 65.4% · Draw 19.5% · AC Monza 15.1% Why Torino FC is favoured Torino FC's Elo (1453) is +126 over AC Monza (1327); high confidence. Recent: Torino FC 3W-1D-3L · AC Monza 2W-1D-4L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Torino FC +0.1, AC Monza -0.3. Form depth Torino FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 2/4 on the road). AC Monza: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/4 on the road). Torino FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Torino FC 1.8, AC Monza 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Torino FC 0W, 3D, AC Monza 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 1-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 63.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 65.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.