SSC Napoli scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SSC Napoli 36.2% · Draw 24.0% · AS Roma 39.8% Why AS Roma is favoured AS Roma's Elo (1670) is +43 over SSC Napoli (1627); high confidence. Recent: SSC Napoli 4W-1D-5L · AS Roma 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SSC Napoli +0.1, AS Roma +1.6. Form depth SSC Napoli: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). AS Roma: avg 2.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). AS Roma on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (SSC Napoli 1.1, AS Roma 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — SSC Napoli 0W, 5D, AS Roma 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 0-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 38.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.