AC Monza scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AC Monza 9.4% · Draw 15.1% · SSC Napoli 75.5% Why SSC Napoli is favoured SSC Napoli's Elo (1627) is +300 over AC Monza (1327); high confidence. Recent: AC Monza 2W-1D-5L · SSC Napoli 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AC Monza -0.4, SSC Napoli -0.1. Form depth AC Monza: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/5 on the road). SSC Napoli: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (AC Monza 1.8, SSC Napoli 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — AC Monza 0W, 1D, SSC Napoli 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 2-0, 2-4. Calibration Raw model: 14.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 9.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.