AC Milan scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AC Milan 33.7% · Draw 20.7% · FC Internazionale Milano 45.6% Why FC Internazionale Milano is favoured FC Internazionale Milano's Elo (1744) is +135 over AC Milan (1609); high confidence. Recent: AC Milan 5W-3D-1L · FC Internazionale Milano 7W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AC Milan +0.8, FC Internazionale Milano +1.0. Form depth AC Milan: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). FC Internazionale Milano: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). FC Internazionale Milano on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (AC Milan 1.8, FC Internazionale Milano 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — AC Milan 0W, 2D, FC Internazionale Milano 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 36.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 33.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.